substack

Probably Overthinking It

by Allen Downey

Allen Downey, author of Think Bayes and Think Python, works through real data in public: why cancer survival rates don't mean what people think, a Bayesian answer to the raven paradox, a published paper that misread Simpson's paradox, what actually drives the gender gap in life expectancy. Every post is a worked example of statistical reasoning with the caveats left in.